A simulated 'sandbox' for exploring the modifiable areal unit problem in aggregation and disaggregation.

We present a spatial testbed of simulated boundary data based on a set of very high-resolution census-based areal units surrounding Guadalajara, Mexico. From these input areal units, we simulated 10 levels of spatial resolutions, ranging from levels with 5,515-52,388 units and 100 simulated zonal configurations for each level - totalling 1,000 simulated sets of areal units. These data facilitate interrogating various realizations of the data and the effects of the spatial coarseness and zonal configurations, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), on applications such as model training, model prediction, disaggregation, and aggregation processes. Further, these data can facilitate the production of spatially explicit, non-parametric estimates of confidence intervals via bootstrapping. We provide a pre-processed version of these 1,000 simulated sets of areal units, meta- and summary data to assist in their use, and a code notebook with the means to alter and/or reproduce these data.

Good fences: the importance of setting boundaries for peaceful coexistence.

We consider the conditions of peace and violence among ethnic groups, testing a theory designed to predict the locations of violence and interventions that can promote peace. Characterizing the model's success in predicting peace requires examples where peace prevails despite diversity. Switzerland is recognized as a country of peace, stability and prosperity. This is surprising because of its linguistic and religious diversity that in other parts of the world lead to conflict and violence. Here we analyze how peaceful stability is maintained. Our analysis shows that peace does not depend on integrated coexistence, but rather on well defined topographical and political boundaries separating groups, allowing for partial autonomy within a single country. In Switzerland, mountains and lakes are an important part of the boundaries between sharply defined linguistic areas. Political canton and circle (sub-canton) boundaries often separate religious groups. Where such boundaries do not appear to be sufficient, we find that specific aspects of the population distribution guarantee either sufficient separation or sufficient mixing to inhibit intergroup violence according to the quantitative theory of conflict. In exactly one region, a porous mountain range does not adequately separate linguistic groups and that region has experienced significant violent conflict, leading to the recent creation of the canton of Jura. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that violence between groups can be inhibited by physical and political boundaries. A similar analysis of the area of the former Yugoslavia shows that during widespread ethnic violence existing political boundaries did not coincide with the boundaries of distinct groups, but peace prevailed in specific areas where they did coincide. The success of peace in Switzerland may serve as a model to resolve conflict in other ethnically diverse countries and regions of the world.

The ability of individuals to assess population density influences the evolution of emigration propensity and dispersal distance.

We analyze the simultaneous evolution of emigration and settlement decisions for actively dispersing species differing in their ability to assess population density. Using an individual-based model we simulate dispersal as a multi-step (patch to patch) movement in a world consisting of habitat patches surrounded by a hostile matrix. Each such step is associated with the same mortality risk. Our simulations show that individuals following an informed strategy, where emigration (and settlement) probability depends on local population density, evolve a lower (natal) emigration propensity but disperse over significantly larger distances - i.e. postpone settlement longer - than individuals performing density-independent emigration. This holds especially when variation in environmental conditions is spatially correlated. Both effects can be traced to the informed individuals' ability to better exploit existing heterogeneity in reproductive chances. Yet, already moderate distance-dependent dispersal costs prevent the evolution of multi-step (long-distance) dispersal, irrespective of the dispersal strategy.

Sex-specific spatio-temporal variability in reproductive success promotes the evolution of sex-biased dispersal.

Inbreeding depression, asymmetries in costs or benefits of dispersal, and the mating system have been identified as potential factors underlying the evolution of sex-biased dispersal. We use individual-based simulations to explore how the mating system and demographic stochasticity influence the evolution of sex-specific dispersal in a metapopulation with females competing over breeding sites, and males over mating opportunities. Comparison of simulation results for random mating with those for a harem system (locally, a single male sires all offspring) reveal that even extreme variance in local male reproductive success (extreme male competition) does not induce male-biased dispersal. The latter evolves if the between-patch variance in reproductive success is larger for males than females. This can emerge due to demographic stochasticity if the habitat patches are small. More generally, members of a group of individuals experiencing higher spatio-temporal variance in fitness expectations may evolve to disperse with greater probability than others.